Research team CoinShares has developed several plausible scenarios for the dynamics of bitching after coming Kalinga, from the negative and catastrophic consequences, ending with neutral and positive.
The cryptocurrency industry has just been through two halving, the consequences of which are sufficiently well known, however, experts to this day disagree on the effects of the upcoming next week Polovinnaya rewards to miners. The upcoming 3rd halving in the history of digital currencies will be vastly different from the previous one, so the analysts developed the five most likely scenarios:
Catastrophic. Halving will lead to a “spiral of death” miners. The scenario is considered most unlikely, but it points to the fact that bitcoin price will begin to decline and miners will be forced to disable the equipment. This will reduce Hasrat, slow block generation, and other factors, suggesting stagnation. The cycle will reach its peak and completely stops.
Negative. Most likely, traders who are engaged in the purchase of the rumors, will change their positions and begin to sell on the news. Experts CoinShares draw an analogy from alvingham Litecoin when the value of the digital coins for four months after the events fell substantially. But the movement of bitcoin will depend heavily on actions of speculators.
Average. This is a fairly likely scenario, since we can expect additional pressure of miners on the bitcoin's price, especially with the extra pressure of miners at the “negative” scenario above. The effect is more obvious at lower prices.
Positive. Will take place in accordance with the model Stock-to-flow. At this stage, the scenario is considered plausible, but many issues remain in question.
Minimal. First of halving nothing usual will happen, at least at first. Analysts focus on the probability of the scenario and indicate that volatility will be in the range of 1-5%.
In CoinShares argue that the recent fall of bitcoin prices and the upcoming halving woke up in the miners commitment to reinvestment and modernization of equipment as in the long term this will reduce the impact on the value of bitcoin by selling coins. In addition, previously known trader Joe007 have speculated that the upcoming halving will lead to a sharp increase in the market value of the cryptocurrency, and called the current price is too high.